2026 · After week 7
Season Forecast
10,000 simulated finishes of the 2026 season: the 42 regular-season games left, ESPN's tiebreakers and the 6-team bracket (top 2 get byes). Updated Nov 2, 2:54 PM ET.
Odds
Who gets there
| Team | PI | Now | Proj. | Playoffs | Bye | #1 seed | Final | Champion | Last |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Osfar's 3 Point Stance | 1 | 5-2 | 9.5-4.5 8–11 wins | 96% | 53% | 20% | 45% | 25% | 0% |
Dunne and Christmas | 2 | 6-1 | 10.2-3.8 8–12 wins | 99% | 74% | 51% | 47% | 24% | 0% |
Abject Failures | 3 | 4-3 | 8.0-6.0 6–10 wins | 80% | 18% | 5.7% | 27% | 14% | <0.1% |
Dat Velly Funny | 6 | 6-1 | 9.2-4.8 7–11 wins | 92% | 37% | 18% | 26% | 11% | 0% |
Chili P Roll | 4 | 4-3 | 7.9-6.1 6–10 wins | 77% | 10% | 2.3% | 21% | 11% | 0.2% |
Bizzy B's | 5 | 3-4 | 6.4-7.6 5–8 wins | 36% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 8.4% | 4.4% | 1.1% |
Mike R | 9 | 4-3 | 7.0-7.0 5–9 wins | 43% | 4.0% | 1.1% | 8.8% | 3.8% | 0.6% |
Gerald Rogers | 7 | 3-4 | 6.3-7.7 5–8 wins | 31% | 1.1% | <0.1% | 6.8% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
LA Fatty | 10 | 3-4 | 6.1-7.9 4–8 wins | 22% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 4.7% | 1.9% | 5.5% |
Aerie | 8 | 2-5 | 5.3-8.7 4–7 wins | 14% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 11% |
Mud Smackers | 11 | 2-5 | 5.2-8.8 3–7 wins | 10% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 13% |
Mr Trombone | 12 | 0-7 | 3.0-11.0 1–5 wins | 0.4% | 0% | 0% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 67% |
Week-by-week cells: red = favored, darker = bigger favorite. PI = this week's Aerie Power Index rank. Projected record is over all 14 regular-season weeks.
Seeding
Where they finish
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osfar's 3 Point Stance | 20 | 33 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | · | · | · |
| Dunne and Christmas | 51 | 22 | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | · | · | · | · | · |
| Abject Failures | 6 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | · |
| Chili P Roll | 2 | 8 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 13 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | · |
| Bizzy B's | · | 1 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 1 |
| Dat Velly Funny | 18 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | · | · | · |
| Gerald Rogers | · | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 10 | 2 |
| Aerie | · | · | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 19 | 11 |
| Mike R | 1 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| LA Fatty | · | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 5 |
| Mud Smackers | · | · | · | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 19 | 25 | 13 |
| Mr Trombone | · | · | · | · | · | · | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 67 |
Playoff line. Numbers are % of simulations finishing in each spot.
Remaining schedule
Week by week
| Team | Wk 8 | Wk 9 | Wk 10 | Wk 11 | Wk 12 | Wk 13 | Wk 14 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osfar's 3 Point Stance | BB 61% | KOSH 65% | Mike 65% | SJ 63% | Dick 63% | PAUL 66% | DOG 64% |
| Dunne and Christmas | KOSH 62% | SJ 60% | PAUL 63% | SMAK 63% | ENDO 52% | BB 59% | Mike 62% |
| Abject Failures | Mike 60% | Dick 58% | DOG 59% | Poop 52% | DNR 48% | KOSH 60% | SJ 58% |
| Chili P Roll | SJ 56% | PAUL 59% | SMAK 59% | ENDO 48% | BB 54% | Mike 58% | Dick 56% |
| Bizzy B's | SCHN 39% | Mike 54% | Dick 52% | DOG 52% | Poop 46% | DNR 42% | KOSH 54% |
| Dat Velly Funny | Poop 44% | DNR 40% | KOSH 52% | SCHN 37% | PAUL 53% | SMAK 53% | ENDO 42% |
| Gerald Rogers | SMAK 53% | ENDO 42% | BB 48% | Mike 52% | SCHN 37% | DOG 50% | Poop 44% |
| Aerie | PAUL 53% | SMAK 53% | ENDO 41% | BB 48% | Mike 51% | Dick 50% | SCHN 36% |
| Mike R | ENDO 40% | BB 46% | SCHN 35% | Dick 48% | DOG 49% | Poop 42% | DNR 38% |
| LA Fatty | DNR 38% | SCHN 35% | SJ 48% | PAUL 51% | SMAK 51% | ENDO 40% | BB 46% |
| Mud Smackers | Dick 47% | DOG 47% | Poop 41% | DNR 37% | KOSH 49% | SJ 47% | PAUL 50% |
| Mr Trombone | DOG 47% | Poop 41% | DNR 37% | KOSH 49% | SJ 47% | SCHN 34% | SMAK 50% |
Week 8
Osfar's 3 Point Stance
61%
SCHNBizzy B's
39%
BBLA Fatty
38%
KOSHDunne and Christmas
62%
DNRMike R
40%
MikeAbject Failures
60%
ENDODat Velly Funny
44%
SJChili P Roll
56%
PoopGerald Rogers
53%
DickMud Smackers
47%
SMAKMr Trombone
47%
PAULAerie
53%
DOGWeek 9
LA Fatty
35%
KOSHOsfar's 3 Point Stance
65%
SCHNBizzy B's
54%
BBMike R
46%
MikeDunne and Christmas
60%
DNRDat Velly Funny
40%
SJAbject Failures
58%
ENDOGerald Rogers
42%
DickChili P Roll
59%
PoopMr Trombone
41%
PAULMud Smackers
47%
SMAKAerie
53%
DOGTrend
Playoff odds by week
| Team | Wk 1 | Wk 2 | Wk 3 | Wk 4 | Wk 5 | Wk 6 | Wk 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osfar's 3 Point Stance | 68 | 87 | 92 | 97 | 99 | 97 | 96 |
| Dunne and Christmas | 66 | 74 | 60 | 78 | 89 | 95 | 99 |
| Abject Failures | 44 | 38 | 28 | 38 | 55 | 66 | 80 |
| Chili P Roll | 56 | 44 | 67 | 76 | 77 | 67 | 77 |
| Bizzy B's | 28 | 19 | 29 | 17 | 40 | 50 | 36 |
| Dat Velly Funny | 60 | 70 | 80 | 85 | 91 | 83 | 92 |
| Gerald Rogers | 32 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 17 | 18 | 31 |
| Aerie | 34 | 38 | 28 | 19 | 19 | 28 | 14 |
| Mike R | 56 | 61 | 67 | 52 | 38 | 55 | 43 |
| LA Fatty | 73 | 80 | 69 | 79 | 54 | 35 | 22 |
| Mud Smackers | 40 | 24 | 35 | 30 | 10 | 5 | 10 |
| Mr Trombone | 42 | 46 | 29 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
% chance of making the playoffs, as forecast after each week. Hover a cell for that week's rank and record.
- Ratings and odds update automatically within about 15 minutes of ESPN marking a week final (usually early Tuesday morning ET).
- Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, including the playoff bracket. Tiebreakers follow ESPN's head-to-head-then-points rule as closely as we can reconstruct it; once the regular season ends, ESPN's real seeds are used.