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The Aerie
This week
2026 · After week 5

Power Index

Every team rated by the points it really scores in a typical week, not by its record. Updated automatically after each week goes final, with 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

Archive: the Power Index as it stood after week 5. Back to the latest →

1
Osfar's 3 Point Stance
146.6
Rating
5-0
Record
32%
Title
2
1
Dunne and Christmas
139.4
Rating
4-1
Record
16%
Title
3
2
Abject Failures
138.6
Rating
2-3
Record
8.3%
Title
After week 5

The rankings

Updated Nov 2, 3:04 PM ET
Aerie Power Index, after week 5
#MoveTeamRatingRecordPlayoffsTitleAll-playLuckLast 3vs avg
1
Osfar's 3 Point Stance
146.65-099%32%51-4+0.4154.4+11.7
21
Dunne and Christmas
139.44-189%16%37-17-1+0.6144.1+4.6
32
Abject Failures
138.62-355%8.3%35-20−1.2144.9+3.7
4
Chili P Roll
138.53-277%12%29-26+0.4154.3+3.7
51
Dat Velly Funny
134.95-091%13%31-23-1+2.1129.0+0.1
65
Bizzy B's
134.22-340%4.2%23-32−0.1145.3−0.6
7
Mr Trombone
134.20-59.8%1.4%24-31−2.2120.8−0.6
86
LA Fatty
133.03-254%6.6%30-25+0.3111.8−1.8
9
Aerie
132.31-419%1.8%20-35−0.8133.8−2.5
10
Gerald Rogers
131.51-417%1.7%17-37-1−0.6137.9−3.3
111
Mike R
127.83-238%2.5%14-41+1.7110.7−7.0
124
Mud Smackers
126.81-49.6%0.8%17-37-1−0.6111.8−8.0
Week 6 · pre-week odds

Win probabilities

Full forecast →
Osfar's 3 Point Stance
59%
SCHN
vs
Abject Failures
41%
ENDO
Dunne and Christmas
51%
DNR
vs
Chili P Roll
49%
Poop
Bizzy B's
58%
BB
vs
Mud Smackers
42%
SMAK
LA Fatty
51%
KOSH
vs
Aerie
49%
DOG
Mike R
43%
Mike
vs
Mr Trombone
57%
PAUL
Dat Velly Funny
54%
SJ
vs
Gerald Rogers
46%
Dick
Report card

How it's doing

Picks this season
19-5
79% of winners picked, weeks 2 on
Backtest 2018–2025
58.5%
winners picked in 615 games, vs 53.8% for record and 57.5% for points scored
League average
134.8
points per team per week
Weekly swing
±24
typical week-to-week change in a team's score

Fantasy football is mostly luck week to week, so even the best team rarely tops 65% in a single matchup. How it works →