2026 · After week 6

Power Index

Every team rated by the points it really scores in a typical week, not by its record. Updated automatically after each week goes final, with 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season.

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Archive: the Power Index as it stood after week 6. Back to the latest →

Osfar's 3 Point Stance

Ben Schnackenberg

141.3

Rating

5-1

Record

27%

Title

Dunne and Christmas

Ryan Dunbar & Nick Rohlfsen

137.3

Rating

5-1

Record

20%

Title

Abject Failures

Fred Endorf

136.6

Rating

3-3

Record

12%

Title

After week 6

The rankings

Updated Nov 2, 2:59 PM ET

Aerie Power Index, after week 6
#	Move	Team	Rating	Record	Playoffs	Title	All-play	Luck	Last 3	vs avg
1		Osfar's 3 Point Stance Ben Schnackenberg	141.3	5-1	97%	27%	53-13	+0.2	139.0	+9.2
2		Dunne and Christmas Ryan Dunbar & Nick Rohlfsen	137.3	5-1	95%	20%	44-21-1	+1.0	150.8	+5.2
3		Abject Failures Fred Endorf	136.6	3-3	66%	12%	43-23	−0.9	145.7	+4.5
4		Chili P Roll Seth Kanne	135.5	3-3	67%	11%	34-32	−0.1	136.8	+3.4
5	1	Bizzy B's Brett Bryngelson	132.7	3-3	50%	6.2%	32-34	+0.1	144.6	+0.6
6	3	Aerie Daren Steneman	131.4	2-4	28%	3.1%	30-36	−0.7	142.1	−0.7
7	2	Dat Velly Funny Steve Johns	130.5	5-1	83%	11%	32-33-1	+2.0	115.9	−1.6
8	1	Mr Trombone Derek Pauling	130.0	0-6	2.5%	0.3%	27-39	−2.5	118.1	−2.1
9	1	LA Fatty David Koshenina	128.6	3-3	35%	3.8%	30-36	+0.3	106.2	−3.4
10	1	Mike R Mike Remington	128.1	4-2	55%	5.1%	25-41	+1.7	121.5	−4.0
11	1	Gerald Rogers Robert Martin	127.9	2-4	18%	1.8%	21-44-1	0.0	127.0	−4.2
12		Mud Smackers Kip Hamilton	125.2	1-5	4.7%	0.5%	23-42-1	−1.1	108.0	−6.8

Rating: points the team should score in a typical week (league average 132.1).
All-play: record if every team played every other team each week.
Luck: wins above (+) or below (−) what the all-play record would give.
Playoffs / Title: share of 10,000 simulated seasons. Top 6 make the playoffs.

Week 7 · pre-week odds

Win probabilities

Full forecast →

Dunne and Christmas

45%

Osfar's 3 Point Stance

55%

Abject Failures

54%

Bizzy B's

46%

Chili P Roll

58%

LA Fatty

42%

Mud Smackers

47%

Mike R

53%

Aerie

51%

Dat Velly Funny

49%

Mr Trombone

52%

Gerald Rogers

48%

Report card

How it's doing

Picks this season

21-9

70% of winners picked, weeks 2 on

Backtest 2018–2025

58.5%

winners picked in 615 games, vs 53.8% for record and 57.5% for points scored

League average

132.1

points per team per week

Weekly swing

±24

typical week-to-week change in a team's score

Fantasy football is mostly luck week to week, so even the best team rarely tops 65% in a single matchup. How it works →

Ratings and odds update automatically within about 15 minutes of ESPN marking a week final (usually early Tuesday morning ET).
Odds come from 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, including the playoff bracket. Tiebreakers follow ESPN's head-to-head-then-points rule as closely as we can reconstruct it; once the regular season ends, ESPN's real seeds are used.